The structural breakthrough of new parties in 21st-century Europe: a qualitative comparative analysis

The rise of new political parties in Europe over the past two decades has fundamentally transformed the political landscape, challenging the dominance of established parties and reshaping electoral dynamics. This study investigates the emergence of new political parties in 21st-century Europe through a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). We identify and analyze the conditions for their electoral performance, revealing that no necessary conditions were found for new parties’ structural breakthrough. Our findings indicate that multiple pathways contribute to the rise of these new parties. The results show three distinct solutions, each combining political, institutional, and economic factors in different ways. However, across all identified causal pathways, the most influential factors appear to be political in nature, particularly a pervasive lack of trust in established parties. In contrast, institutional factors and economic downturns appear to have a less substantial impact on shaping outcomes. By examining these varied trajectories, the study sheds new light on the structural dynamics driving political developments in contemporary Europe and the challenges faced by traditional parties in adapting to a changing electoral landscape.