REFORMING THE UK FISCAL FRAMEWORK

Abstract This paper argues that the current UK fiscal framework fails to support growth-enhancing public investment while inadequately restraining debt accumulation. Frequent changes to fiscal rules, their short horizon and incentives that prioritise current spending over long-term investment have undermined economic stability and productivity growth. We propose a reformed framework centred on clear fiscal objectives, enhanced OBR analysis of long-run sustainability and a target for the primary surplus consistent with maintaining stable debt. A supplementary investment rule would ensure adequate public capital formation. Together, these reforms aim to raise productivity, support resilience and improve living standards.

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Publication Details

Journal
National Institute Economic Review
Published
2026-03-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2026.10088
Primary Topic
Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

REFORMING THE UK FISCAL FRAMEWORK

Adrian Pabst, Stephen Millard, Ben Caswell
National Institute Economic Review
Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
article

REFORMING THE UK FISCAL FRAMEWORK

Adrian Pabst, Stephen Millard, Ben Caswell
article en

Abstract

Abstract This paper argues that the current UK fiscal framework fails to support growth-enhancing public investment while inadequately restraining debt accumulation. Frequent changes to fiscal rules, their short horizon and incentives that prioritise current spending over long-term investment have undermined economic stability and productivity growth. We propose a reformed framework centred on clear fiscal objectives, enhanced OBR analysis of long-run sustainability and a target for the primary surplus consistent with maintaining stable debt. A supplementary investment rule would ensure adequate public capital formation. Together, these reforms aim to raise productivity, support resilience and improve living standards.

National Institute Economic Review
University of Kent (GB), National Institute of Economic and Social Research (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 34%
Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
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