Determinants of Wellness Tourism Development in Emerging Hot Spring Destinations: Evidence from Allelobad Hot Spring, Ethiopia Using SEM

Wellness tourism represents a significant growth sector within the global tourism industry; however, empirical research examining development determinants in resource-constrained, emerging African destinations remains limited. This study investigates the structural relationships among infrastructure development, community involvement, marketing and promotion, and visitor expectations/service quality in advancing wellness tourism at Allelobad Hot Spring in Ethiopia’s Afar Region. Using a quantitative methodology, structured questionnaires were administered to 210 respondents (visitors, local community members, and tourism stakeholders), resulting in 186 valid responses. Data were analyzed through Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Results demonstrate that all four determinants exert statistically significant positive effects on wellness tourism development (p < 0.001), with visitor expectations and service quality emerging as the strongest predictor (β = 0.35), followed by infrastructure development (β = 0.32), marketing and promotion (β = 0.30), and community involvement (β = 0.27). The structural model explains 68% of the variance in wellness tourism development, indicating substantial explanatory power. These findings underscore that sustainable wellness tourism growth in emerging destinations necessitates integrated, multidimensional strategies that simultaneously address physical infrastructure, stakeholder engagement, strategic positioning, and experiential excellence, rather than isolated sector-specific interventions.