Mechanisms Shaping Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity Through the Integration of Power Generation Availability Indicators and Energy Intensity Measures: Case Study of Poland

The paper examines the energy transition using Poland as a case study. The model was estimated based on annual data for Poland for the period of 1990–2024 (n = 35). The estimation was carried out using the OLS method with HAC correction, and the statistical significance of parameters was assessed using statistical tests. Based on econometric analysis, the impact was examined throughout the entire research period, with additional analysis of the structural break dummy for 2015. It was verified whether this impact had changed since 2015 compared to the earlier period. The data were used to calculate indicators, arranged in three groups: (1) capacity availability indicators (for the availability of the overall power system and for the renewable energy sources (RES)); (2) indicator of emission intensity (the indicator was defined as the ratio of total greenhouse gases emission to real GDP); (3) indicator of the economy’s energy intensity (the indicator was defined as primary energy consumption per unit of GDP). Annual summaries of these indicators constituted the input data for econometric modelling. The aim of the empirical analysis was to deepen the identification of mechanisms shaping greenhouse gas emission intensity by incorporating into the model indicators of generation capacity availability and measures of the economy’s energy intensity. The data collection based on constructed greenhouse gas emission intensity and energy intensity indicators of the economy enables the analysis of the increase in emission intensity regardless of the scale of the economy, in the system of power availability for the entire energy system, as well as for renewable energy sources. This approach makes it possible to move away from the analysis of absolute volumes toward a structural perspective that better reflects the real production capabilities of the power system as well as the efficiency of energy use in the economy. The results indicate that economic energy intensity is the dominant determinant of greenhouse gas emission intensity in Poland during the research period. The econometric analysis estimates show a positive and statistically significant relationship between energy intensity and emissions intensity, whereas generation capacity availability indicators—both for the total power system and for renewable energy sources—do not exhibit statistically significant effects. However, it was found that this impact was not constant throughout the entire period (β is 0.455 for pre-2015 and 0.325 for post-2015). Sensitivity analysis based on point elasticities reveals that a 1% increase in energy intensity of GDP leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emission intensity (by approximately 1.18% pre-2015 and 0.85% post-2015), whereas analogous changes in total capacity availability and RES availability are associated with substantially smaller effects (0.10% and 0.20%, respectively). These findings suggest that improvements in economy-wide energy efficiency played a more decisive role in reducing emissions intensity than short-term variations in generation capacity availability.