Toward a unified agentic framework for regime-aware portfolio optimization with LLM signals
Abstract Most portfolio optimization frameworks assume static objectives and constraints, making them fragile under regime shifts, transaction frictions, and evolving information. Existing LLM-based methods focus on signal generation without governing execution or constraint elasticity, while reinforcement learning approaches often lack transparency and cost discipline. This lack of a unified, interpretable architecture hinders adaptability and accountability during live rebalancing. We address this gap by introducing an agentic portfolio optimization framework that integrates regime-aware convex optimization, LLM-derived sentiment and uncertainty features, and a constrained reinforcement learning controller in a closed loop. The agent senses market and news data, infers regimes, and dynamically adjusts objectives, risk budgets, and position limits, while enforcing friction-aware execution through Sharpe-gated trade activation, partial rebalancing, and turnover budgeting. In a 50-stock S & P 500 portfolio tested under walk-forward evaluation (2021–2025 Q1), agentic portfolios consistently outperform non-agentic benchmarks, with Sharpe ratio gains of up to +0.373 (NSGA-3), persisting net of transaction costs and alongside lower turnover. These results highlight the value of combining forward-looking signals, regime-conditioned intent, and disciplined execution within a unified transparent, adaptive agentic architecture. Future research should explore multi-asset extensions, richer textual and alternative data for regime inference, explainability metrics for LLM-driven signals, and hybrid architectures blending deterministic control with selective policy learning for extreme market conditions.
Authors
- Lamukanyani Alson Mantshimuli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8565-0760)
- John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba
Institutions
- University of Johannesburg (ZA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Data Science and Analytics
- Published
- 2026-03-09
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-026-01066-0
- Primary Topic
- Risk and Portfolio Optimization
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00