Toward a unified agentic framework for regime-aware portfolio optimization with LLM signals

Abstract Most portfolio optimization frameworks assume static objectives and constraints, making them fragile under regime shifts, transaction frictions, and evolving information. Existing LLM-based methods focus on signal generation without governing execution or constraint elasticity, while reinforcement learning approaches often lack transparency and cost discipline. This lack of a unified, interpretable architecture hinders adaptability and accountability during live rebalancing. We address this gap by introducing an agentic portfolio optimization framework that integrates regime-aware convex optimization, LLM-derived sentiment and uncertainty features, and a constrained reinforcement learning controller in a closed loop. The agent senses market and news data, infers regimes, and dynamically adjusts objectives, risk budgets, and position limits, while enforcing friction-aware execution through Sharpe-gated trade activation, partial rebalancing, and turnover budgeting. In a 50-stock S & P 500 portfolio tested under walk-forward evaluation (2021–2025 Q1), agentic portfolios consistently outperform non-agentic benchmarks, with Sharpe ratio gains of up to +0.373 (NSGA-3), persisting net of transaction costs and alongside lower turnover. These results highlight the value of combining forward-looking signals, regime-conditioned intent, and disciplined execution within a unified transparent, adaptive agentic architecture. Future research should explore multi-asset extensions, richer textual and alternative data for regime inference, explainability metrics for LLM-driven signals, and hybrid architectures blending deterministic control with selective policy learning for extreme market conditions.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Data Science and Analytics
Published
2026-03-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-026-01066-0
Primary Topic
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
Type
article
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article

Toward a unified agentic framework for regime-aware portfolio optimization with LLM signals

Lamukanyani Alson Mantshimuli, John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba
International Journal of Data Science and Analytics
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
article

Toward a unified agentic framework for regime-aware portfolio optimization with LLM signals

Lamukanyani Alson Mantshimuli, John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba
article en

Abstract

Abstract Most portfolio optimization frameworks assume static objectives and constraints, making them fragile under regime shifts, transaction frictions, and evolving information. Existing LLM-based methods focus on signal generation without governing execution or constraint elasticity, while reinforcement learning approaches often lack transparency and cost discipline. This lack of a unified, interpretable architecture hinders adaptability and accountability during live rebalancing. We address this gap by introducing an agentic portfolio optimization framework that integrates regime-aware convex optimization, LLM-derived sentiment and uncertainty features, and a constrained reinforcement learning controller in a closed loop. The agent senses market and news data, infers regimes, and dynamically adjusts objectives, risk budgets, and position limits, while enforcing friction-aware execution through Sharpe-gated trade activation, partial rebalancing, and turnover budgeting. In a 50-stock S & P 500 portfolio tested under walk-forward evaluation (2021–2025 Q1), agentic portfolios consistently outperform non-agentic benchmarks, with Sharpe ratio gains of up to +0.373 (NSGA-3), persisting net of transaction costs and alongside lower turnover. These results highlight the value of combining forward-looking signals, regime-conditioned intent, and disciplined execution within a unified transparent, adaptive agentic architecture. Future research should explore multi-asset extensions, richer textual and alternative data for regime inference, explainability metrics for LLM-driven signals, and hybrid architectures blending deterministic control with selective policy learning for extreme market conditions.

International Journal of Data Science and AnalyticsVol. 22(1)
University of Johannesburg (ZA)
Openalex Percentile: Top 36%
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
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Toward a unified agentic framework for regime-aware portfolio optimization with LLM signals — Lamukanyani Alson Mantshimuli, John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba · International Journal of Data Science and Analytics (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS