A Conceptual Framework for Risk-Adjusted Investment Attractiveness Assessment of Manufacturing Companies

Assessing the investment attractiveness of companies is essential for effective capital allocation under conditions of uncertainty and heterogeneous risk–return profiles. Investors typically face multiple financing alternatives, making comparative evaluation impossible without robust and specialized assessment methodologies. This study proposes a refined conceptual model for assessing the investment attractiveness of production companies, with a specific focus on the manufacturing sector of Kazakhstan. The research is based on a modeling-oriented methodological framework that integrates a modified discounted cash flow (DCF) approach with elements of environmental controlling. The proposed model incorporates sector-specific characteristics, including resource utilization patterns, regulatory requirements and the potential “green” premium observed in capital markets. To capture investment-related uncertainty and risk, the study employs material flow cost accounting, scenario-based modeling and probabilistic decision tree analysis. Particular attention is given to improving the determination of the discount rate, recognizing its critical influence on present value-based investment assessments. The model accounts for macroeconomic and sectoral factors specific to Kazakhstan’s production industry and offers alternative discount rate estimation scenarios under different initial conditions. The study contributes to the literature on investment attractiveness assessment by integrating financial, environmental and risk dimensions into a unified framework. The proposed model enhances transparency in investment decision-making and provides new insights into investment evaluation practices in emerging industrial economies.