Impact of globalization, agricultural and renewable energy production on carbon emissions: insights from a novel atmospheric metric in Bangladesh

This study explores how globalization, renewable energy consumption, and governance interact to influence carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Bangladesh from 1990 to 2022. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework alongside FMOLS and DOLS estimators, the analysis reveals that renewable energy consumption exerts a significant long-run abatement effect, while globalization and foreign direct investment display a non-linear relationship with emissions. A renewable-energy penetration threshold of approximately 38%–50% marks the point beyond which CO 2 emissions begin to decline, confirming a turning-point dynamic. Governance effectiveness enhances this decoupling by reinforcing policy execution and institutional quality. These findings align with Bangladesh’s Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA) targets and Vision 2041 agenda, underscoring the need for sustained investment in clean energy infrastructure, grid modernization, and green finance. The study contributes novel evidence on the globalization-energy-environment nexus through a threshold-based approach tailored to an emerging economy context.