From regulatory inertia to strategic vulnerability: a neoclassical realist analysis of Britain’s critical minerals under-balancing

Abstract This article uses neoclassical realism (NCR) to explain the United Kingdom’s ongoing failure to secure its critical mineral supply chains despite mounting systemic pressure from intensifying great-power competition. Structural realism predicts that states facing external threats will balance against adversaries. However, the UK exhibits a clear case of “under-balancing,” and maintains a dangerous dependence on China for materials indispensable to its economic and military power. This paper argues that this strategic incapacity stems not from a lack of awareness or resource scarcity, but from deeply entrenched domestic institutional constraints. The study introduces the concept of “Sovereign lethargy,” a distinct pathology of middle powers in the twenty-first century characterized by the inability to translate systemic pressure into coherent policy due to the veto power of domestic institutional friction. This lethargy leaves the UK strategically vulnerable in an era of weaponized interdependence and growing great power competition.