Bayesian updating of atomic probabilities

The standard conditional probability formula is supposed to reflect the correct updating of probability assignments when new information is incorporated (Bayesian updating). We consider a context with no preferences on outcomes. Starting from an atomic probability measure and assuming a “minimum requirement” relational assumption or other stronger assumptions, we characterize the family of probability measures where Bayesian updating is the only possibility. This family turns out to be formed by those probability measures in which the Laplace formula can be used to determine the probability of events.

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Publication Details

Journal
Economics Letters
Published
2026-03-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112923
Primary Topic
Scientific Measurement and Uncertainty Evaluation
Type
article
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article

Bayesian updating of atomic probabilities

José Luis González Gutiérrez
Economics Letters
Scientific Measurement and Uncertainty Evaluation
article

Bayesian updating of atomic probabilities

José Luis González Gutiérrez
article en

Abstract

The standard conditional probability formula is supposed to reflect the correct updating of probability assignments when new information is incorporated (Bayesian updating). We consider a context with no preferences on outcomes. Starting from an atomic probability measure and assuming a “minimum requirement” relational assumption or other stronger assumptions, we characterize the family of probability measures where Bayesian updating is the only possibility. This family turns out to be formed by those probability measures in which the Laplace formula can be used to determine the probability of events.

Economics LettersVol. 263
Universidad de Salamanca (ES)
Reduced inequalities
Openalex Percentile: Top 34%
Scientific Measurement and Uncertainty Evaluation
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