The effects of human activity and snow cover on the distribution of mammals and terrestrial birds in the Altai Mountains under climate change

The Altai Mountains, a complex mountain system of Central Asia, is particularly sensitive to global change. Under increasing human activities and continuing climate change, the range of animals may show expansion or contraction. In this study, we evaluated and predicted the distribution dynamics of 27 animal species and the resulted change of species richness in the Altai Mountains by using MaxEnt model in the current and future periods. The results show that most species are predicted to mainly distribute in the northwest of the Altai Mountains under current conditions. In the future, habitats located in the central region may be largely lost. Most species tend to shift their ranges towards higher altitudes or latitudes. Human activities, snow cover and precipitation of coldest quarter are the most important predictors explaining the potential distributions of most species. As global climate change continues to alter potentially suitable habitats, we recommend to establish a transboundary protected area across the four countries (China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Russia) in the central region of the Altai Mountains. Additionally, we suggest reducing potential anthropogenic impacts on wildlife and their habitats by regulating human activities.