Seasonal Predictions and Their Applications in the Mediterranean Region: Part II—Prediction‐Based Services
ABSTRACT This review paper examines the development and application of climate predictions, primarily at seasonal timescales, as actionable information for decision‐making, with a specific focus on the Mediterranean region. It illustrates and analyses the steps required to transform climate model probabilistic forecasts into user‐defined information, emphasising the iterative nature of climate service development. By leveraging tools such as bias adjustment, downscaling, probabilistic calibration and impact models, these services provide tailored solutions to key sectors including energy, water supply, transport and agriculture. The paper discusses the contributions of global initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), and EU‐funded projects like EUPORIAS, MEDSCOPE and MED‐GOLD, which have advanced sector‐specific applications of climate predictions in the region. These initiatives illustrate how tailored climate services can address critical challenges ranging from renewable energy planning to drought risk mitigation and agricultural yield forecasting. The review highlights persistent challenges, including limited forecasting skill in the Mediterranean area, data accessibility issues and the need for robust impact‐based verification. To enhance the uptake and effectiveness of climate services, the review recommends fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, promoting iterative co‐production with users, improving the communication of uncertainty and forecast skill, and ensuring the sustainability of services beyond project lifetimes. This work underscores the potential of climate services to enhance resilience in the Mediterranean region, bridging the gap between scientific advances and practical applications.
Authors
- Silvia Terzago (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7867-0440)
- Estéban Rodríguez Guisado
- Ernesto Rodríguez Camino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1565-2373)
- Constantin Ardilouze (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3949-4450)
- Kristina J. H. Fröhlich
- Massimiliano Pasqui (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0926-362X)
- Verónica Torralba (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8941-1548)
- Wafae Badi
- Lauriane Batté (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7903-9762)
- Andrea Toreti
- Silvio Gualdi
- Javier García‐Serrano
- Fatima Driouech
Institutions
- Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (ES)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DE)
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES)
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- Météo-France (FR)
- Joint Research Centre (IT)
- Asociación Española de Urología (ES)
- Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique (MA)
- Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (MA)
- Istituto di Biometeorologia (IT)
- Universitat de Barcelona (ES)
- Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Climatology
- Published
- 2026-02-25
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70300
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00