Eastern United States: Potential Range for Ecologically Based Coastal Defenses in 2100

ABSTRACT Eco‐defenses (mangroves, oyster reefs, and saltmarshes) are ecosystems that can help to mitigate the effects of natural hazards and erosion on coastal communities, though the locales that are hospitable to these eco‐defenses will shift with climate change. In this work, we present results from the first analysis to project viable habitat for three coastal eco‐defenses along the east coast of Maryland, Virginia, and the Carolinas using decomposed climate scenarios for the Year 2100. We establish potential spatial ranges for these eco‐defenses under varying temperature and sea level parameters and constraints posed by existing human population, the built infrastructure, and topography. Using our range projections, we show which coastal regions will benefit from the protection of each type of eco‐defense.