Settlement heritage on the Coastal Peninsula: an investigation of the spatiotemporal evolution of Shandong Province via GIS

Shandong Province, a core convergence of agricultural and maritime civilizations in eastern China, saw its settlements evolve long-term from pre-Sui-Tang to the Qing Dynasty, bearing North China’s human-land adjustment, social transformation and cultural inheritance, and serving as a key sample for understanding ancient Chinese settlement development. This study analyzed settlement spatio-temporal evolution in five periods: pre-Sui (prehistoric period – 580 A.D.), Sui-Song (581–1279), Yuan (1279–1368), Ming (1368–1644), and Qing (1644–1912). It used the nearest neighbor index (NNI) to measure settlement spatial clustering (clustered, random, discrete), kernel density analysis (KDE) to capture density kernel locations and evolution, and standard deviational ellipse (SDE) to characterize distribution center drift and direction. The study shows that: (1) Shandong’s settlement spatial pattern remained agglomerated across periods, evolving from loose to highly concentrated, then to periodic adjustment. (2) Settlement kernel density transformed from point distribution to multi-core belt agglomeration, with rising spatial agglomeration and maturing settlement systems, reflecting evolution driven by natural geography and social history. (3) The distribution of these settlements shows a spatial and temporal characteristic of shifting from southwest to northeast. Combined with the regional historical and geographical background, this evolution trend is related to natural and human factors such as changes in the Yellow River system, flood control engineering construction, and optimization of transportation patterns.