Simulating climate change impacts on lentil yield in the Canadian Prairies using the CSM‐CROPGRO‐lentil model

Abstract Lentil ( Lens culinaris Medik.) has been widely adopted in crop rotations in the semiarid Canadian Prairies. Lentil is a known drought‐tolerant crop, but it is uncertain how a changing climate might impact lentil yields. Using a newly adapted lentil model, we simulated lentil yields in the Canadian Prairies with future climate scenarios based on five global climate models under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, leading to a global warming level at 1.8°C, 3.6°C, and 4.4°C at the end of the 21st century. Adjusted planting management appears to be an effective strategy under projected warmer climates, as the results indicate that, on average, the vegetative period would be shortened by 1–2 days, compared to nearly a week in the case of fixed planting, while the reproductive period would remain relatively stable across the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s under SSP3‐7.0. The simulated yield would maintain 22.7%, 28.3%, and 24.0% with adjusted planting dates, while it could be only 17.8%, 20.4%, and 10.8% above the baseline with fixed planting dates in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, under SSP3‐7.0. The projections also capture the overall positive impacts of rising CO 2 and temperature on lentil growth until the adverse impacts of higher temperatures become more pronounced in the 2070s. Lentil yields, averaged across the Canadian Prairies, were projected to increase by approximately 20% and remain stable under SSP1‐2.6, compared to increases of 24.0%, 27.4%, and 21.7% occurring under SSP5‐8.5 for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively.