Using Catch Data to Estimate Changes in Global Commercial Abalone Abundance

ABSTRACT Changes in global wild capture production of abalone are explored to infer potential changes in biological stocks. The study found that 77% (or 10 out of the 13) of the countries that reportedly caught abalone in the wild have experienced declines in catches between 1980 and 2023, and on aggregate catch declined by almost 83% between 1980 and 2023. In order to test whether dynamic closures would be a solution, a model of regulated open access is developed for abalone at Table Mountain National Park (TMNP). The model shows that dynamic closures are only applicable for fisheries with well‐developed stock assessment capabilities and where illegal fishing is largely absent. The TMNP probably does not fall into this category, although the catch restriction component of the model probably still applies. Solutions for fisheries where these conditions are not met are then discussed with reference to the socio‐political literature.