Quantifying the Social Burden and Spatiotemporal Concentration of Fatal Road Traffic Incidents in Medellín (2008–2025)

This study examines the social burden and systemic infrastructure vulnerabilities associated with fatal road traffic incidents in Medellín, Colombia, over the period 2008–2025. Using official records from the Secretaría de Movilidad de Medellín, the analysis quantifies impact through Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) and high-resolution spatiotemporal clustering, moving beyond simple fatality counts or economic valuation alone. Phase I applies an age-group proportional allocation method to estimate YPLL for 2762 fatal road traffic incidents, while Phase II employs a spatiotemporal geostatistical framework (ICCE-T) to detect statistically significant concentration clusters. Results indicate that these incidents generated 100,851 years of potential life lost, with individuals aged 15–35 accounting for 64.7% of total YPLL, and the 20–25 age group alone contributing 21.5% of the overall burden. Spatial analysis reveals persistent clustering along key urban corridors, particularly in Comuna 10 (La Candelaria), identifying recurrent nodes of elevated systemic vulnerability. By integrating epidemiological measurement with spatiotemporal analysis, the study provides a decision-oriented analytical framework to support resilient, evidence-based urban mobility interventions and guide strategic public investment under the Safe System approach.