Techno-economic assessment of district-scale solar energy integration in three residential districts under future climate conditions

This study evaluates the solar energy integration potential of three residential districts in Borlänge, Sweden; Riga, Latvia; and Amsterdam, Netherlands under present-day and future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2080. District-scale energy simulations were conducted using the City Energy Analyst, while future weather files were generated and benchmarked against contemporary climate projections. Two façade-based PV technologies, building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) and photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) systems were assessed using an irradiance-threshold placement strategy. The principal indicators included levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), self-sufficiency, self-consumption, and normalized PV demand coverage. The results reveal substantial but location-specific changes in thermal demand and solar availability under future climate conditions. Amsterdam exhibits a demand-dominated profile, with PV demand coverage remaining below 30% because of limited installation area and extensive shading. Riga and Borlänge present balanced-to-surplus and surplus-dominated profiles, respectively, with demand coverages exceeding 170% and up to 270% under selected irradiance thresholds. Lower irradiance thresholds of 0–200 kWh/m²·yr are therefore more appropriate for dense boathouses case in Amsterdam, whereas higher thresholds of 600–800 kWh/m²·yr are economically preferable for dense residential contexts in both Riga and Borlänge. Technology-learning sensitivity analysis further indicates that future reductions in solar LCOE improve absolute economic performance without materially changing the relative ranking of the irradiance thresholds. The benefits of PVT are strongly dependent on local heating infrastructure: it is greatest where thermal output can directly offset building-level heating demand and more limited for the building-level heating where mature low-carbon district heating networks serves the district. This study provides actionable insights for urban planners and policymakers aiming to optimize solar integration in residential districts under future climate conditions by jointly reviewing climate, urban morphology, heating infrastructure and solar technology learning status.