Data‐driven discovery of mechanistic ecosystem models with <scp>LLMs</scp>

Abstract Ecosystem models are essential for ecosystem management, but their development traditionally requires significant time and expertise, creating bottlenecks in addressing urgent environmental challenges. We present LEMMA (LLM Enabled Mechanistic Modelling for ecosystem Assessment), a framework that programmatically generates and iteratively refines mechanistic ecosystem models by combining large language models (LLMs) for equation synthesis and parameter search, evolutionary algorithms for structural optimisation and Template Model Builder (TMB) for efficient parameter estimation. We critically review LEMMA 's ability to recover known ecological relationships through two complementary marine case studies: (1) a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model, and (2) a Crown‐of‐Thorns starfish (COTS) model. In the first case, our best models displayed almost perfect recovery of known ecological dynamics while maintaining strong predictive performance across multivariate time‐series. In the second case, the best LEMMA‐generated models approached human expert models in terms of their ability to successfully capture COTS outbreak dynamics and demonstrated strong out‐of‐sample predictive power. LEMMA produces interpretable models with meaningful parameters that capture real biological processes, facilitating scientific insight and potentially accelerating management applications. By dramatically accelerating model development while offering ecological interpretability, LEMMA offers a powerful new tool for addressing urgent ecological challenges in a changing world.

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Publication Details

Journal
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Published
2026-02-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70244
Primary Topic
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Data‐driven discovery of mechanistic ecosystem models with LLMs

Elizabeth A. Fulton, Rowan Trebilco, Suk Yee Yong, Scott Spillias et al.
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
article

Data‐driven discovery of mechanistic ecosystem models with LLMs

Elizabeth A. Fulton, Rowan Trebilco, Suk Yee Yong, Scott Spillias, Fabio Boschetti, Magda Guglielmo, Jacob G. D. Rogers
article en

Abstract

Abstract Ecosystem models are essential for ecosystem management, but their development traditionally requires significant time and expertise, creating bottlenecks in addressing urgent environmental challenges. We present LEMMA (LLM Enabled Mechanistic Modelling for ecosystem Assessment), a framework that programmatically generates and iteratively refines mechanistic ecosystem models by combining large language models (LLMs) for equation synthesis and parameter search, evolutionary algorithms for structural optimisation and Template Model Builder (TMB) for efficient parameter estimation. We critically review LEMMA 's ability to recover known ecological relationships through two complementary marine case studies: (1) a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model, and (2) a Crown‐of‐Thorns starfish (COTS) model. In the first case, our best models displayed almost perfect recovery of known ecological dynamics while maintaining strong predictive performance across multivariate time‐series. In the second case, the best LEMMA‐generated models approached human expert models in terms of their ability to successfully capture COTS outbreak dynamics and demonstrated strong out‐of‐sample predictive power. LEMMA produces interpretable models with meaningful parameters that capture real biological processes, facilitating scientific insight and potentially accelerating management applications. By dramatically accelerating model development while offering ecological interpretability, LEMMA offers a powerful new tool for addressing urgent ecological challenges in a changing world.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), University of Tasmania (AU), The University of Western Australia (AU), Centre for Marine Socioecology (AU)
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 39%
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
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