Club Convergence and Drivers of Agricultural Innovation in US States: 1976–2023

ABSTRACT Innovation is a key driver of agricultural development, shaping productivity, food security, and sustainability. Yet, innovation in agriculture is not evenly distributed in the United States, leading to divergent development trajectories across regions. This study investigates convergence dynamics in agricultural innovation by analyzing state‐level agricultural patents as a proxy for technological advancement. To detect heterogeneous innovation pathways, we apply the club convergence framework based on the log‐ t test and nonlinear time‐series methods. Our results reveal disparities in agricultural patenting activity, with states forming distinct convergence clubs. This indicates that agricultural innovation does not converge uniformly, underscoring the need for targeted policy measures to close regional technological gaps. To further explore the determinants of club membership, we estimate an ordered logit model incorporating R&D expenditures, employment‐productivity index, well‐being index, gross farm income, and land‐grant university appropriations. The findings confirm that all these factors significantly increase the likelihood of states moving into higher‐performing innovation clubs, highlighting their central role in shaping agricultural innovation.