Decadal changes in environmental suitability for the margay ( <i>Leopardus wiedii</i> ) under anthropogenic pressure in the Yucatán Peninsula

Abstract Assessing distinct impacts of human activities on species distribution is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies. The margay ( Leopardus wiedii ) is a poorly studied and highly threatened species due to its dependence on forest habitats. Within its distribution range, the Yucatán Peninsula (YP) is a key region due to its habitat diversity and biological connectivity. However, during the last decade, the YP has experienced accelerated anthropogenic pressures, and no studies have evaluated the differential impacts of human activities on margay distribution. In this study, we used MaxEnt species distribution models with Target‐Group bias correction to analyze how different types of human activities affected margay distribution and environmental suitability over the last decade (2010–2013 and 2020–2023). This represents the first regional‐scale assessment of margay distribution changes in the YP incorporating anthropogenic impacts over a decadal timeframe. Our results reveal contrasting patterns of habitat change: contraction areas (~139,790 km 2 ) showed significant vegetation loss and agricultural expansion, posing threats to margay persistence, while expansion areas (~12,428 km 2 ) demonstrated vegetation recovery within abandoned agricultural landscapes. These findings highlight the dual effects of human activities: agriculture emerges as a critical threat, while land abandonment and forest recovery offer opportunities for recolonization. Notably, margays showed resilience by adapting to disturbed habitats near urban edges, suggesting potential for persistence in human‐modified landscapes. Our study also advances methodological approaches for species distribution models by demonstrating the effectiveness of Target‐Group bias correction in small datasets, particularly for elusive species with limited occurrence records.