Temporal frequency analysis identifies land degradation hotspots and sustainable use bright spots

Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) requires tools that identify persistent degradation hotspots for targeted action, moving beyond static monitoring. We present a novel Temporal Frequency Analysis (TFA) that quantifies the repeatability of degradation or improvement trends as a measure of landscape process persistence. It analyzes changes in the land productivity dynamics indicator—the most responsive SDG 15.3.1 component in drylands—across five consecutive five-year periods from 2001 to 2022, using a moving average and a dynamic baseline. This dynamic baseline serves as an analytical reference for temporal diagnostics, complementing rather than replacing the fixed historical baseline used for standardized national reporting. Applied to Turkmenistan's Dashoguz and Lebap provinces, TFA filters climatic noise to reveal spatially explicit, persistent degradation hotspots and improvement bright spots. We found that only a small fraction of the landscape (<1%) exhibits high repeatability of positive or negative trends, indicating that entrenched landscape degradation is hyper-localized. The analysis further reveals how soil-vegetation feedbacks and land-use practices interact to produce contrasting degradation trajectories across different landscape units—from irrigated croplands to desert pastures. The proposed TFA framework is scalable, offering a robust diagnostic tool that links global LDN reporting to local landscape process understanding. Beyond reporting, the framework directly informs the LDN response hierarchy by identifying where to avoid, reduce, or reverse degradation, thereby guiding integrated land-use planning and the LDN accounting mechanism. This provides actionable insights for adaptive land management in dryland regions worldwide. By distinguishing recurrent degradation from temporary variability, TFA strengthens the evidence base for applying the LDN response hierarchy, prioritizing restoration and sustainable land management, and accounting for losses and gains within integrated land-use planning.