The ‘climate Kuznets curve’: A critique

The ‘climate Kuznets curve’ relates the log of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, usually measured just by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), to the log of GDP and that squared in an inverse U-shaped relationship. In an all-electric world, there would be little relationship, as GDP would not be generated using fossil fuels. Rather the relation is between anthropogenic GHGs and fossil fuel use as we demonstrate for the United Kingdom, as well as demonstrating the non-constancy of the ‘climate Kuznets curve’. The danger of falsely believing GDP growth is the problem, not fossil fuel use, is that cutting GDP is mistakenly seen as a ‘solution’ to the climate crisis, leading to opposition to the green transition and facing unnecessary reductions in living standards if wrongly adopted. • The ‘climate Kuznets curve’ would not exist in an all-electric world. • Relation of GDP to fossil fuel use is non-constant with forecast failure. • Constant relation of CO2 emissions to energy from fossil fuels. • UK annual CO2 emissions per capita fell from 12.2 tons to 4.3 over 1973-2023 while. • GDP rose by 75% • Cutting GDP is not a ‘solution’ to the climate crisis.