Impact of Climate Extremes on Food Security: A Study on Mechanisms and Mitigation Strategies

ABSTRACT Food security (FS) is fundamental to national stability, yet it faces a significant threat from extreme temperatures (ETs), which undermine both the quantity and stability of agricultural production. Understanding the mechanisms through which ETs impact FS and identifying effective adaptation strategies are therefore vital for safeguarding national food security and promoting agricultural sustainability. By constructing comprehensive indices for FS and ETs, this study employs a panel quantile regression model to investigate the non‐linear impact of ETs on FS. The empirical results indicate that ETs exert a significant negative effect on FS, particularly in regions characterized by medium‐to‐low FS levels. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that these adverse impacts are more severe in western China, regions outside the Yangtze River Basin, and areas with balanced food production and consumption. Furthermore, mechanism analysis shows that in medium‐to‐low FS regions, agricultural insurance effectively buffers against climate risks, whereas rural carbon dioxide emissions exacerbate the negative shock of ETs. This study provides a comprehensive perspective on how ETs affect FS, offering both theoretical insights and empirical evidence to support policies addressing these challenges.