Assessing the Role of Post‐Secondary Education Level on Unemployment Menace in Kenya: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

ABSTRACT This paper develops a deterministic mathematical model to assess the role of post‐secondary education on the unemployment problem in Kenya. The current model offers several notable new features compared to the existing unemployment models. First, it incorporates the tertiary education level as a key hub for imparting knowledge and skills necessary for employment. Second, it carefully considers the issue of skills mismatch among graduates. Third, the model is fitted to real data for realism. We conduct a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the model. This includes: computation of the unemployment reproduction number (), proof that the model possesses a unique unemployment‐free equilibrium (UFE) when , and demonstrate that a unique unemployment‐endemic equilibrium (UEE) exists when . We establish that the UFE and UEE are locally and globally asymptotically stable for and , respectively. Additionally, numerical results indicate that enhancing individuals' skills to meet labor market requirements significantly reduces unemployment and increases employment. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that increasing the employment rate among unemployed individuals considerably diminishes unemployment. This effect can be realized by developing additional employment sectors.