Projected Annual and Monsoonal Precipitation Trends of <scp>CMIP</scp> 6 Over <scp>P</scp> eninsular <scp>M</scp> alaysia

ABSTRACT In this study, we investigated the historical and projected precipitation trends over Peninsular Malaysia (PM) using ground‐based precipitation records and high‐resolution CMIP6 GCMs from NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6. Long‐term records from 518 reliable gauges were analysed for 1973–2022 to understand past spatial and monsoonal precipitation trends. Ten GCMs were assessed and bias‐corrected using a linear scaling method, with the five best‐performing models selected to construct a multi‐model ensemble (MME). Future trends for 2051–2100 were evaluated under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. The results indicate a spatially heterogeneous distribution of precipitation, which is heavily influenced by topography and monsoonal regimes. Historically, negative trends have dominated the Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Meanwhile, positive trends have been observed during the Northeast Monsoon (NEM), particularly along the east coast. Under SSP2‐4.5, the future trends showed modest increases and smaller negative areas. Meanwhile, more widespread and intense declines in precipitation were projected for SSP5‐8.5, particularly along the southeastern coast. These findings highlight the climatic sensitivity of PM under varying emission pathways and emphasise the importance of integrating reliable observational data and robust model ensembles for future water resource planning and climate adaptation strategies.