Improving Agricultural Water Use in the Texas High Plains: A Strategic Approach to Crop Switching and Optimal Land Allocation

The Texas High Plains relies almost entirely on groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer, where decades of pumping have caused water-table declines exceeding 100–250 feet in several counties. Sustaining irrigated agriculture in this region requires strategies that conserve groundwater without undermining farm profitability. This study develops a county-level optimization framework using 2000–2022 data on planted acreage, yields, irrigation intensity, prices, and production costs for corn, cotton, and sorghum across 41 counties. The model assesses a wide range of potential land reallocation strategies using normalized land shares (5% and 10% incremental shifts from current planting patterns), determining both profit-maximizing (PMAX) and water-minimizing (WMIN) results for each county. The stochastic variation in prices is captured via a kernel density estimation (KDE) method, which enables Monte Carlo simulation of the crop price vectors for realistic production outcomes. Results are compared across three scenarios: baseline conditions, the profit-maximizing allocation (PMAX), and the water-minimizing allocation (WMIN). Regional aggregation of county-level outcomes reveals how localized decisions convert to water savings. Findings from the study show that land reallocation, especially moderate shifts toward sorghum, can substantially reduce groundwater withdrawals while maintaining profit levels close to their PMAX benchmark. Results show that PMAX and WMIN coincide in only 19 of 41 counties, while 22 counties display divergence, indicating substantial untapped potential for conservation. Regionally, switching from PMAX to WMIN reduces irrigation by 0.32 million acre-feet (16%), and by 0.67 million acre-feet (29%) relative to the historical baseline. Water savings are primarily achieved by reallocating land away from corn and cotton toward sorghum, which delivers the lowest irrigation footprint. Profit losses from water minimization are concentrated in a handful of counties including Sherman, Moore, Deaf Smith, and Lubbock, which collectively account for roughly 86% of total losses. Many other counties show “no-regret” outcomes where water can be conserved with little or no reduction in expected returns. The average Groundwater Abatement Price (GAP) is $806 per acre-foot but ranges widely from $54 (Randall) to $4,916 (Moore), revealing large county-level differences in the economic cost of conservation. Overall, the results demonstrate that water conservation in the Texas High Plains is achievable at scale and at manageable economic cost. The framework offers a replicable county-specific decision tool and supports targeted policy design, including performance-based conservation payments, drought-trigger bonuses, and groundwater pricing calibrated to local GAP values. Strategic crop switching, particularly modest expansions of sorghum, can extend aquifer life while maintaining the profitability of irrigated agriculture in water-stressed regions.