SO, IS IT GOING TO RAIN OR NOT?: EXAMINING COGNITIVE OVERLOAD, RECALL, RISK PERCEPTION, AND SATISFACTION IN CONTEMPORARY TV WEATHERCASTS

The goal of this research is to understand how an individual cognitively and emotionally processes weather information of varying complexity, to facilitate message transference in the changing weather communication industry. The weather is something to which every person can relate, and the forecast is often the primary reason audiences tune into local television newscasts. Historically, weathercasting was occupied by journalists or entertainers, but today’s climate demands meteorological expertise. However, scientifically dense weathercasts can alienate audiences, especially in an era of competing digital sources and widespread misinformation. Despite demonstrably accurate forecasts, public distrust and misinterpretation persist, contributing to preventable weather-related casualties. This dissertation investigates how the mind processes modern weather communication through the lens of the Limited Capacity Model of Motivated Mediated Message Processing (LC4MP) and the Cognitive Theory of Multimedia Learning (CTML), both of which emphasize optimizing message design and reducing cognitive load. Experimental participants were exposed to weathercasts with varying visual and verbal complexity under high and low risk scenarios, while behavioral measures—including Secondary Task Reaction Times (STRTs)—assessed cognitive overload. Results showed weathercasts with high visual complexity significantly impaired cognitive processing, resulting in slower reaction times overall and lower recall during severe weather, while high verbal complexity decreased satisfaction and promoted false perceptions of misunderstanding the forecast. Conversely, simpler forecasts led to greater perceived understanding, faster processing, and improved message retention. Risk severity also moderated these effects: in high-risk conditions, participants were more engaged but also more susceptible to overload. Furthermore, lower risk increased psychological distance, making risk feel less imminent. The findings highlight the critical balance between scientific accuracy and audience comprehension, and suggest that message designers should prioritize clarity, simplicity, and strategic graphic design—especially during severe weather. By integrating CTML and LC4MP principles, this research contributes a novel empirical foundation for improving public weather communication across platforms.