Green hydrogen in the Netherlands: A systemic assessment of status and barriers

• Ambitions on green hydrogen raise questions on status and barriers for development • To address systemic complexity, TIS analysis and transition pathways are combined • Strong legitimacy and developed TIS functions mask tensions across the value chain • System integration and scaling up remain critical unresolved challenges • Pathway duality challenges transition models and requires reflexive governance . Green hydrogen has recently attracted broad policy and business interest. To assess its status and barriers to further application, we study the case of the Netherlands, a self-proclaimed frontrunner, combining Technological Innovation System analysis with the transition pathways approach. Forty-eight semi-structured interviews were held with actors from eleven stakeholder groups, triangulated with secondary data. Green hydrogen is still immature and has not yet found application in the market. However, our analysis shows that institutions, actors, networks, and infrastructure are present or are developing across the value chain. Also, it shows a broad development across innovation functions. Especially legitimation, resource mobilization, knowledge development, and entrepreneurial experimentation are well developed. Yet barriers persist: different visions regarding the role of blue hydrogen and the transition speed, lack of system integration, high costs, and production- consumption interdependencies. Developments follow a combination of pathways. The transformation pathway manifests through incumbents involvement and natural gas infrastructure repurposing; the reconfiguration pathway through emerging niche technologies, demonstration plants, new entrants, and novel knowledge generation. This pathway duality creates fundamental tensions in vision, strategy, timing, and resource allocation throughout the innovation system. Theoretically, our study demonstrates that integrating TIS analysis with the transition pathways approach reveals pathway duality—competing transition logics operating simultaneously within individual system functions—that conventional TIS applications treating the innovation system as a coherent entity would obscure. These findings challenge linear models of energy transitions and suggest functional assessments must account for directional contestation. Managing pathway plurality requires reflexive governance that accommodates diversity while maintaining directionality toward sustainability goals.