EUROPE'S DILEMMA: CONTINUE THE PROXY WAR IN UKRAINE OR START EU REFORM

Abstract: This research article aims to present the European Union's declining position in the world economy and geopolitics and to examine its development options in light of the new American national security strategy and the Russo-Ukrainian war. As for the latter, the author, after presenting the changes in the geopolitical situation, examines the development of the Russo-Ukrainian war, presenting little-known justifications for it, and widely unknown facts about characteristics of the special military operation (SMO), the reasons for its initial failure, its transformation (into a war of attrition and proxy warfare), the results achieved, and possible escalation. Then, he analyzes one of the most important elements of the peace treaty under preparation - security guarantees - with special attention to the planned deployment of European deterrent forces in Ukraine, presenting arguments that this deployment does not serve to establish peace. The author concludes that the decline of the United States' role in Europe should convince the EU that if it wants to remain an influential player in the world, it must urgently introduce reforms to increase organizational and operational efficiency and competitiveness and to build a European military force without US participation. The resources needed for this can be secured, in significant part, by promoting the closure of the Russo-Ukrainian war and normalizing relations with Russia. The conditions for ending the war have been met. There is no point in continuing the fighting for either side. Russian troops are currently advancing slowly but surely, while the Ukrainians are attacking remote Russian oil refineries, 20% of which have been rendered inoperable. In response, the Russians have severely damaged Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The European Union has reached a crossroads: either it continues its military support for Ukraine and imposes further sanctions against Russia (proxy war), or it helps end the war, lifts sanctions, begins Ukraine's accession process to the European Union, and launches internal EU reforms to remain a significant global economic and political player (EU reform). These two options are mutually exclusive. Continuing Western military support for Ukraine and maintaining primary and secondary sanctions against Moscow in the long term could lead to an escalation of the war or trigger an unprecedented process of destabilization in the Russian Federation, with unpredictable consequences for Europe. Europe has already started two world wars; it must not start a third.