Development of the Agricultural Sector of Ukraine’s Economy under Martial Law: National Losses and International Prospects

The agricultural sector of Ukraine is a strategic component of the national economy, ensuring the country’s food security and forming a significant part of its export potential, which contributes to rural employment and the stabilization of the socio-economic development of rural areas. Attention is paid to the discourse on the sustainability of agricultural production in the context of war, the adaptation of policy to new risks, and the place of national agriculture in international strategic perspectives, including the provisions of the European Green Deal and the EU Common Agricultural Policy. The purpose of the article is to identify the features of the functioning of Ukraine’s agricultural sector under martial law and, based on this, to propose an assessment of the scale and structure of direct and indirect losses of the agricultural sector as a result of the war, as well as to outline the opportunities and prospects for its recovery in the context of international integration. The main hypothesis is the assumption that the recovery and sustainable development of the agricultural sector during the war and post-war reconstruction are possible, provided there is a comprehensive assessment of losses, adaptation of international risk management tools, integration into European markets, and active implementation of innovative business models. The main conclusions of the study indicate the need to establish a unified damage monitoring system in the agricultural sector in accordance with international standards. An additional value of the study is the development of conceptual foundations for adapting GFDRR tools to the national context in order to substantiate decisions regarding sectoral recovery and to enhance the resilience of rural economic entities, which is of interest to scholars, policymakers, and international donors.