WINDS, DROUGHT, AND SURVIVAL: TRADITIONAL INDIAN KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS AND WIND-BASED FORECASTS OF MONSOON RAINLESSNESS IN THE MIDDLE GANGETIC PLAIN

Traditional Indian societies developed refined methods of weather forecasting through long-term observation of atmospheric processes and seasonal cycles. This paper examines predictions of rainlessness and weak monsoon rainfall in the Middle Gangetic Plains, focusing on wind-based indicators embedded in folk couplets attributed to traditional Indian weather scientists Ghagh and Bhaddari. Using qualitative textual analysis and concepts from climatology and meteorology, the study explores how wind direction, persistence, intensity, and seasonal timing were employed to anticipate drought, famine, and agricultural stress. These traditional formulations are empirically grounded, aligning with principles such as moisture availability, air-mass interaction, frontal formation, and atmospheric stability. Beyond prediction, the couplets guided practical responses including cropping adjustments, livestock management, migration, and trade. Interpreted through a scientific lens, indigenous wind-based forecasting emerges as applied, adaptive, and socially relevant. The study underscores the continuing value of traditional climatological knowledge for understanding monsoon variability, environmental resilience, and human–environment interaction amid increasing climatic uncertainty.