Textual quantitative analysis of China’s fertility-friendly policies——based on a two dimensional analytical framework of policy tools and policy objectives

To quantitatively analyze China’s fertility-friendly policies issued from 2016 to 2025, examine their structural characteristics and evolution, and provide evidence for policy optimization. A two-dimensional framework of “policy tools–policy objectives” was constructed. Content analysis, word frequency analysis, and semantic network analysis were applied to 46 central-level fertility-friendly policy texts. The number of fertility-friendly policies showed an overall upward trend with clear phased features. The policy system demonstrated service orientation, system coordination, and multi-level advancement. Environmental, supply, and demand policy tools accounted for 40.65%, 40.29%, and 19.06%, respectively, indicating an imbalanced distribution of policy tools at the central-government level. In terms of policy obectives, service-friendly, cultural and social-friendly, and interpersonal-friendly goals accounted for 73.14%, 24.32%, and 2.54%, respectively, revealing an uneven goal hierarchy. The alignment between policy tools and policy objectives was insufficient, and system coordination remained weak. China’s fertility-friendly policy system has shifted from initial exploration to systematic development, forming a relatively diversified but still structurally unbalanced policy structure. Future policies should increase direct financial subsidies, expand paid parental leave, and strengthen employer responsibility-sharing mechanisms, while enhancing coordination between service provision and interpersonal support systems and promoting the construction of a multi-level fertility support network involving government, society, communities, and families to improve overall policy effectiveness.