Spatiotemporal impacts and nonlinear moderating effects of the digital economy on county-level public services in western China

Counties in western China face persistent challenges in delivering equitable public services, while the digital economy offers opportunities to enhance service provision. This study examines 752 counties across 12 provinces, using composite indicators for the digital economy and public services, spatial analysis, Spatial Durbin Models, and threshold effect models with robustness checks. Results show that the digital economy generally improves public services, but population density above 298 persons per square kilometer and fiscal surplus weaken gains and intensify negative spillovers, per capita GDP above 26,515 yuan and industrial upgrading index above 0.9175 strengthen contributions to education, culture, and social welfare, and in fiscally constrained counties with low revenue-to-expenditure ratios, a unit increase in informatization improves services by only 0.0063 units. To reduce disparities, densely populated counties should implement shared digital service hubs and joint e-governance platforms, while fiscal-constrained counties can deploy targeted transfer payments to fund IT infrastructure, digital literacy programs, and online public service applications.