Exploring a Family-Based Approach as a Control Strategy for Gastric Ulcers and Gastric Cancer: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

This study formulates a deterministic model to assess the effect of a family-based control and management (FBCM) strategy against the transmission of Helicobacter pylori infection and its consequent development of gastric ulcers and gastric cancer. The model includes nine epidemiological compartments to model disease transmission and contact epidemiology between susceptible and infected individuals. In the model analysis, we compute positivity, the invariant region, equilibria, stabilities, and bifurcation analysis. We calculate the control reproduction number R0 and demonstrate that the model has a unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and an endemic equilibrium point (EEP) that are locally and globally stable for R0<1 and R0>1, respectively. We perform a thorough mathematical analysis and validate the model by fitting it to real data on gastric cancer cases recorded at Meru Teaching and Referral Hospital, Kenya. The best numerical results are achieved when we combine both preventive measures (sensitization and a family-based approach) and curative measures (prompt treatment and adherence), resulting in the greatest decrease in gastric ulcer and gastric cancer cases compared with a single intervention. This study shows that integrated household-level interventions can reduce transmission and prevent mild-to-severe disease progression through effective sensitization campaigns, high FBCM efficacy, effective gastric ulcer treatment, and adherence to drug protocols. The use of such strategies offers an effective means of reducing Helicobacter pylori-related gastric ulcers and gastric cancer outcomes, with important implications for public health control program design.