Assessing key demographic parameters and viability of a wolf population in a highly human-dominated landscape

The persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes is particularly sensitive to the impact of humans on key demographic parameters, such as survival, which is strongly influenced by legal and illegal killing. However, estimating demographic parameters is challenging, requiring remarkable logistical and economic efforts. We developed a Bayesian integrated population model for wolves persisting in a human-dominated landscape at the edge of their European range. We incorporated multiple long-term datasets (2007–2019) of population counts, fecundity, molecular individual identification, and dead recoveries of GPS-collared wolves. With the IPM, we estimated population size and structure, growth rate, survival and emigration rates, the latter two being largely unknown parameters for wolves persisting in these landscapes. We estimated a growth rate of 1.04 (95%BCI: 1.03–1.05). Estimated survival rates were 0.72 (95%BCI: 0.66–0.77) for adults and 0.53 (95%BCI: 0.30–0.71) for pups, and the emigration rate was 0.13 (95%BCI: 0.06–0.21). The low emigration rates estimated may contribute to explaining the cryptic population structure documented in the Iberian wolf population. By forecasting population growth over a ten-year period (2020–2029) under different fecundity and survival rate scenarios, we identified adult survival as a key factor influencing wolf persistence in human-dominated landscapes. Conflicts around wolf depredation on livestock, which may boost retaliatory killing and public pressure to reduce wolf populations, together with other anthropogenic mortality causes and the impacts of infrastructure development, can reduce wolf survival rates to an unknown extent and, therefore, jeopardize wolf recovery. • Integrated Population Model applied to wolves in human-dominated landscapes • Survival rates were estimated at 0.72 for adults and 0.53 for pups • Adult survival is a key factor for wolf persistence in anthropogenic landscapes • A low emigration rate of 0.13 is consistent with the cryptic population structure • Apparent survival rate of 0.62 was lower than in other anthropogenic landscapes