Integrating Structural Risk Analysis into GRECO Evaluations: Methodological Refinement within the Council of Europe Anti-Corruption Framework "Methodological Refinement"

The Council of Europe anti-corruption framework, articulated through the Criminal Law Convention on Corruption, the Civil Law Convention on Corruption, and the monitoring mechanism of the Group of States against Corruption (GRECO), combines specific legal obligations with periodic compliance evaluation. While corruption is institutionally recognized as capable of generating structural effects on the functioning of the rule of law, monitoring practices remain primarily focused on conduct-based compliance. This paper identifies a methodological tension between structural diagnosis and individualized verification. Building on an analytical distinction between conduct-based and structural assessment, the study proposes a two-level evaluation model designed to enhance monitoring coherence within GRECO’s existing mandate. The proposal does not advocate treaty reform or normative expansion, but suggests methodological refinement through the integration of institutional risk indicators and contextual information already available within the Council of Europe system. The paper aims to contribute to technical reflection on strengthening the preventive dimension of European anti-corruption monitoring while preserving legal certainty and institutional balance.