The Impact of Japan’s 2019 Export Restrictions on South Korea’s Semiconductor Imports: An Anal ysis of Direct and Spil l over Effects

This study analyzes the impact of Japan’s 2019 export restrictions on South Korea’s semiconductor imports, focusing on three critical materials essential for semiconductor manufacturing: hydrogen fluoride, fluorinated polyimide, and photoresist. Using panel data from UN Comtrade (2012-2022) and CEPII’s BACI dataset, the research employs a Difference-in- Differences (DID) methodology and an event-study framework to assess the effects of these restrictions on Japan’s exports to South Korea. The findings reveal a significant reduction in South Korea’s imports of these restricted materials, as well as spillover effects on adjacent industries. In particular, the study identifies a 35.1 percent decrease in the import value of the directly affected products, alongside observable shifts in South Korea’s sourcing strategies toward alternative countries. This research provides valuable insights not only into the direct effects of export restrictions, but also into the dynamic responses they trigger—such as the substitution of imports from third countries—highlighting the broader long-term implications for global supply chains and international trade.