The Impact of the Farmland Protection Policy on the Adjustment of Grain Planting Structure: Evidence in China

The quantity and quality of arable land are the basic prerequisites for food security; the arable land balance policy is a key measure to strictly protect farmland, and plays an important role in ensuring arable land use control, sustainable land use and reducing the contradiction between people and land. Drawing on panel data from 26 Chinese provinces spanning 2004 to 2017, this study employs the Nerlove supply response model to empirically examine the impact mechanism and regional heterogeneity of the arable land balance policy on the structure of grain crop cultivation, considering variations in land use following farmland supplementation. The findings reveal that the policy has induced fluctuations in grain crop structure, oscillating between “grain-oriented” and “non-grain-oriented” patterns. These shifts are primarily driven by the heterogeneous technological effects associated with farmland supplementation, which influence farmers’ planting decisions. Nonetheless, the policy has helped mitigate the adverse effects of farmland development on grain production, with the mitigation effect being more pronounced in non-major grain-producing regions. Furthermore, supporting measures such as land consolidation, outsourcing of agricultural services, and cross-regional mechanized operations have contributed to maintaining grain crop cultivation after land supplementation. Based on these findings, optimizing the arable land balance policy requires greater alignment with crop-specific production characteristics and regional farming practices. This includes refining the farmland supplementation coefficient and enhancing the policy’s differentiation mechanisms. Policy adjustments should also reflect the economic development levels and natural resource endowments of both major and non-major grain-producing regions, to promote a functional equilibrium in farmland utilization. Additionally, efforts to improve soil fertility and mechanization capabilities following land supplementation are essential to sustaining stable grain production. This study provides decision-making information support for optimizing the arable land balance policy and improving crop planting structure.