Wind Energy Potential over the Eastern Mediterranean During the Summer Season: Evaluation and Future Projections from CMIP6

Renewables are key pillars of the European Union’s (EU) strategy for green transition and climate neutrality. In particular, wind energy lies at the core of a sustainable framework regarding the energy policy (i.e., European Green Deal and REPowerEU plan) supporting clean, secure, and affordable electricity for a resilient future. In this study, Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations were used to investigate the efficiency of GCMs to capture and reproduce the spatial and temporal features of Wind Energy Potential (WEP). The GCMs that have been used in this study are available in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The analysis focuses on high-interest regions of the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) during the summer season (JJA). The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was used as a reference data set. Furthermore, projected changes in WEP were calculated under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (the “moderate”, SSP2-4.5 and the “fossil-fueled development”, SSP5-8.5 scenarios), covering the period from 1970 to 2099. The results indicate that most GCMs underestimate mean WEP, with model performance ranging from “poor” to “good” scores based on the Kling–Gupta Efficiency index (−0.45 < KGE < 0.5). Future WEP projections show no consistent spatial patterns among GCMs. By the late 21st century, WEP is projected to decrease (about 10–15%) over the Southeastern Aegean and increase between Crete and Libya (about 10–15%) relative to the baseline historical period (1970–2000) under both SSP scenarios. Finally, findings provide elements for the WEP evolution over the Eastern Mediterranean, contributing to the EU energy policy.