Future Supply of Forest-Based Biomass for Energy in Sweden: New Forest Management Policies and Political Priorities

Bioenergy is the largest energy source in the Swedish energy system, where it consists mainly of domestic forest-based biomass in the form of residues and by-products. Today, there is a general discussion about the need for changes in national forest management policies and new European Union (EU) directives and regulations for forestry and bioenergy to better fulfil biodiversity and climate targets, which may affect the future supply of forest-based biomass. The purpose of this study is to analyse whether increases in biomass supply can be expected to continue up to 2050 in Sweden, when the goal of net-zero GHG emissions should be met, taking into account new priorities in relevant national and EU policies. The methodology applied is scenario analysis, including various assumptions regarding such policy implications. The results show that the supply of forest-based biomass (residues, by-products, and low-value trees) has the potential to continue to increase up to 2050, with an increment equivalent to some additional 8% of today’s total energy supply in Sweden, in a scenario which combines both biodiversity goals and timber production in the national forest policy. However, if either biodiversity or timber production is further prioritised, the increase in biomass supply may be 40% lower or 40% higher, respectively. It is predicted that potential effects of new EU directives and regulations, not fully implemented in Swedish national legislation, would significantly limit the potential increase in the forest-based biomass supply, but considerable uncertainties remain in these scenarios. The findings thus highlight the need for further in-depth analyses of how new climate and biodiversity policies may affect national energy supply in the form of forest-based biomass, and thereby also energy security, both from a research standpoint and a policymaker perspective.