The Role of Maths, Science, and English/Welsh GCSE Attainment in Post-16 Subject Progression

This study investigates the predictive value of subject-specific attainment in GCSE maths, science, and English/Welsh language on AS-level outcomes across six universally popular subjects. Logistic regression models estimate the independent effects of prior attainment and school-factors on AS-level success based on administrative data from 8010 pupils in state-maintained schools in Wales. GCSE science attainment was a consistently strong predictor of success across both STEM and humanities subjects, suggesting broader academic utility than typically acknowledged. These findings challenge prevailing policy- and school-level emphasis on maths and English as the priorities for post-16 readiness, subsequently calling for a reconsideration of how ‘core’ subjects are conceptualised and prioritised within educational policy, performance metrics, and school-level guidance. Additionally, the analysis revealed nuanced effects of school language medium and geography, with urban and English-medium schools generally associated with higher AS-level pass rates. Given the attrition between AS- and A-levels, the AS-level attainment focus provides critical insights into early post-16 educational progression not captured by an A-level focus. By focusing on Wales, a bilingual and rural context underrepresented in UK education research, the study contributes novel insights into subject progression, highlighting the need for more subject-specific approaches to educational planning and intervention.