HDCF-Mamba: Bridging Global Dependencies and Local Dynamics for Multi-Scale PV Forecasting

The inherent randomness, high volatility, and non-stationarity of photovoltaic (PV) power generation pose substantial threats to the stability of modern power grids. Developing high-precision forecasting models is essential for grid operation, yet conventional architectures often encounter a performance bottleneck: they struggle to simultaneously achieve high computational efficiency for long-range dependency modeling and robust perception for local, abrupt fluctuations. To address these limitations, this paper proposes HDCF-Mamba, a novel forecasting framework that resolves the feature distribution gap between long-range trends and short-term volatility. The core innovation lies in the Heterogeneous Dual-branch Cross-Fusion (HDCF) mechanism, which enables the synergetic integration of a Mamba-based global branch and a Multi-Kernel Filter Unit-based multi-scale local branch. Specifically, we integrate the Mamba Selective State Space Mechanism into the global branch to efficiently capture long-term dependencies with O(L) linear complexity, fundamentally overcoming the quadratic computational bottleneck of Transformers. Meanwhile, the Multi-Scale Feature Extraction Module (MSFEM) acts as a local compensator to capture high-frequency power fluctuations caused by transient weather changes. Unlike simple hybrid models that rely on linear addition, our HDCF design utilizes a temporal concatenation mechanism to ensure non-linear alignment of these heterogeneous features. Extensive experiments on four real-world PV operational datasets (including publicly available benchmark datasets and actual photovoltaic power station monitoring data: ECD-PV, LSP-PV, APS-PV, and PSB-PV) demonstrate that HDCF-Mamba consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models, achieving a reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of up to 11.4% compared to iTransformer and 8% compared to SCINet, while maintaining superior computational efficiency.