Unpacking housing welfare expansion in China: Internal motives, external pressures, and the adoption of inclusive public rental housing policies

While existing studies have identified various internal and external factors influencing policy adoption and diffusion, the impact of these factors on social policies with complex and hybrid attributes remains unclear. In China, public housing policies serve dual functions: both redistributive and developmental, aiming to enhance social welfare while also driving economic development. This study conducts an event-history analysis of 264 prefecture-level cities between 2010 and 2020 to examine the internal and external factors shaping the adoption of inclusive public rental housing (PRH) policies for urban migrants. The findings indicate that economic interests linked to industrial development tend to promote the inclusion of non-local residents, while those associated with land and housing commodification significantly hinder such inclusion. While rising housing prices raise social welfare concerns that could encourage migrant inclusion, particularly in inland regions, these concerns are often overshadowed by local governments' land-based economic interests. Externally, both vertical and horizontal diffusion mechanisms contribute to the adoption of inclusive PRH policies. Vertical influences at the provincial level manifest primarily through performance-based assessment directives, while horizontal influences are predominantly driven by general competition rather than purely economic performance competition. This study provides insights into housing welfare expansion in a developing and transitional economy, moving beyond the context of high-income Western countries. • We examine internal and external factors shaping inclusive PRH policy adoption in Chinese cities. • Internally, social welfare interests are secondary to industrial and land-based economic interests in shaping policy adoption. • Externally, horizontal competition operates alongside provincial directives in driving policy adoption. • Vertical influence at the provincial level functions predominantly through performance-based assessment directives.