Shrimp larvae transport in a changing climate:Coupling ocean dynamics and biological timing in Disko Bay though modeling

Fishing and hunting have traditionally been the main sources of food in Greenland and remain vital components in Greenlandic cultural identity and livelihood, with the fishing industry currently con-tributing approximately 25% to the Greenlandic gross domestic product. Understanding the dispersal mechanisms of shrimp larvae in a warming Arctic is thus critical for predicting recruitment success and managing fisheries in Greenland. We present a novel drift model for shrimp larvae in Disko Bay, West Greenland, integrating high-resolution oceanographic model output from the FlexSem coastal hydrodynamical model with biological parameters to simulate larval trajectories. The model incorporates the effect of temperature on timing of larvae hatching and developmental rates, while also taking into account the influence of coastal currents, and features such as mesoscale eddies, offering new insights into spatial and temporal variability in larval transport. We demonstrate that large-scale currents and topographic eddies play a role in shaping interannual variability of larval retention and export patterns in Disko Bay, while temperature modulate spawning time and developmental rates. Our simulations reveal how the balance between cold polar waters and warmer Atlantic inflows differs between years, resulting in shifts in temperature, stratification, and current patterns which in turn impact larval connectivity, recruitment success, and ultimately the sustainability of key fisheries. This work contributes to a more mechanistic understanding of shrimp population dynamics and provides a foundation for improved predictions of recruitment variability under future ocean scenarios shaped by a changing climate.<br/>Our simulations reveal that interannual variability in ocean conditions, can lead to shifts in larval connectivity between spawning and settlement areas. The location of Disko Bay, where Atlantic and Arctic water meets, These findings underscore the importance of incorporating dynamic ocean features and thermal sensitivity into larval drift models, particularly in the context of climate-driven changes in Arctic marine ecosystems.<br/>