What Drives the Reverse of Overseas Brain Drain? Identifying the Critical Factors by a Hybrid Grey DANP Technique

Against the backdrop of intensified global talent competition, the return of overseas talents has become a key engine driving the enhancement of core competitiveness in developing countries. Accurately identifying its critical driving factors is essential for China to address the challenges of talent introduction. This study constructs a hybrid multiple-criteria decision-making framework to systematically explore the influence mechanism of overseas talent return: first, a 15-criterion decision structure covering economic, policy, educational, technological, and social aspects is established via systematic literature review and two-round Delphi expert surveys; second, the grey DEMATEL-ANP technique is adopted to quantify the inter-relationships and relative weights of the criteria and screen and rank the critical driving factors accurately. Empirical results show that the six core driving factors ranked by importance are talent policy support, economic development level, scientific and technological development strength, public service quality, educational resource supply, and attention to science and technology, with significant synergistic interaction effects among these factors. This research provides a scientific decision-making framework and empirical support for developing countries to formulate targeted talent introduction policies and optimize the talent development ecosystem.