Spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle factors of agricultural green development in China's major grain-producing areas

Agricultural Green Development (AGD) across 13 major grain-producing provinces in China from 2006 to 2022. Drawing on the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, and obstacle degree model, we track spatiotemporal dynamics while identifying the barriers that most constrain AGD. The results show that AGD has improved steadily over time; against this upward backdrop, the Yangtze River Basin and North China Region display a marked catch-up effect, eventually surpassing the Northeast Region. At the same time, spatial disparities do not diminish accordingly, but instead follow a fluctuating upward trend. Decomposition results further suggest a shift in what drives inequality: inter-regional disparity still contributes the most, yet its dominance is weakening, whereas intra-regional inequality and transvariation density are gaining influence. This pattern implies that the green development gap is increasingly shaped by polarization within regions, rather than being explained mainly by the North–South divide. When the constraints are examined more closely, Ecological Conservation stands out as the most binding barrier at the criterion level. At the indicator level, the Proportion of Waterlogging Control Area, the Development Level of Green Food-Labeled Products, and the Proportion of Soil and Water Loss Control Area repeatedly emerge as the key obstacle factors limiting further improvement. These findings indicate that future interventions should shift from uniform guidance toward precision-based governance, with localized ecological restoration prioritized and the supply structure of green agricultural products further optimized.