Understanding why refuse-derived fuel biomass projects fail through the lens of adaptive capacity in rural Bali

This study investigates the influence of community adaptive capacity on participation and the long-term sustainability of Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) biomass programs in developing countries, with Denpasar City, Bali, Indonesia serving as a case study. Numerous RDF facilities in Bali's traditional villages have been abandoned despite technological feasibility, suggesting that project failures are more attributable to social and institutional constraints than to technical deficiencies. An adaptive capacity–participation framework is employed to analyze the impacts of assets, flexibility, organization, knowledge, and agency on community intentions and willingness to engage in RDF initiatives. Data from surveys conducted with 450 households were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The findings indicate that community knowledge and access to fundamental resources are the most significant determinants of participation intention, bolstered by psychological empowerment and local organizational capacity, while behavioral flexibility serves a complementary role. Intention is identified as a critical mechanism for transforming adaptive capacity into sustained participation, a process that is further enhanced by supportive institutional frameworks. From a practical standpoint, the findings suggest that RDF projects are unlikely to achieve operational longevity if community learning, institutional integration, and ongoing governance support are overlooked. Successful RDF implementation necessitates a focus on environmental education, the integration of RDF management within existing local governance structures, and the provision of consistent technical and policy support that extends beyond short-term pilot phases. The case of Bali underscores that the sustainability of RDF initiatives is contingent upon adaptive capacity as a form of social infrastructure, offering transferable insights for developing regions aspiring to establish resilient, community-centered biomass energy solutions. • Assesses failure factors of rural RDF biomass projects through adaptive capacity framework • Integrates social, institutional, and behavioral dimensions into waste-to-energy analysis • Identifies governance, learning, and participation as key drivers of RDF project success • Reveals socio-cultural and coordination barriers limiting rural biomass sustainability • Provides policy insights to strengthen community-based biomass energy transitions