Fiscal and Operational Burden Determinants of the Profitability of Petróleos Mexicanos: Evidence from 2008–2024

Oil remains a strategic input for global energy systems and petrochemical production, while in resource-dependent countries, it also plays a critical fiscal and macroeconomic role. In Mexico, this dual relevance is embodied by Petróleos Mexicanos, whose profitability has been persistently challenged by declining production, high fiscal pressure, and operational constraints. This study examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal burden, operational performance, and net profitability in Petróleos Mexicanos over the period of 2008–2024. Using quarterly audited financial data from institutional disclosures and investor reports, indicators of fiscal burden, operational performance, and profitability were constructed. The empirical strategy adopts a time-series econometric framework based on the Box–Jenkins methodology, combining ARIMA modeling with a transfer function approach to assess both contemporaneous and lagged effects. The results indicate that operational performance—captured by the operating margin before taxes and duties—exerts a statistically significant and persistent influence on net profitability, including delayed transmission effects. Once operational dynamics are explicitly accounted for, the direct impact of fiscal burden on profitability is not statistically confirmed. These findings suggest that fiscal pressure affects profitability primarily through indirect and mediated channels linked to operational performance rather than through an immediate direct mechanism. The study contributes dynamic empirical evidence to the fiscal–operational debate on state-owned oil companies and offers insights relevant for fiscal design, operational management, and the long-term financial sustainability of Petróleos Mexicanos.