Projected ramp-up of heat pumps, rooftop PV, and BEVs in Germany to 2045 across neighborhood archetypes

The increasing electrification of the heating and mobility sectors, in particular an increasing penetration of building-sector heat pumps, battery electric vehicles and rooftop photovoltaic, necessitates a spatially differentiated analysis of additional loads in order to understand when and where the electricity distribution grid might need to be extended. While numerous studies define national ramp up trajectories for heat pumps, rooftop photovoltaic systems, and battery electric vehicles, district level analyses remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by translating climate target based national pathways into development trajectories for seven representative neighborhood archetypes up to 2045. Building upon existing energetic archetype definitions, a classification of residential areas into seven archetypes is first developed to serve as the basis for scaling. National ramp-up trajectories from several studies are converted into annual growth curves and assigned to the seven neighborhood archetypes using census data and structural indicators such as building type, geometric rooftop potentials, and current as well as projected vehicle densities. The outcome is a set of archetype-specific, temporally resolved projections of building-sector heat pump, photovoltaic, and battery electric vehicle penetration until 2045 which show pronounced differences in the required ramp-up across neighborhood archetypes, with single- and two-family house areas driving most of the early adoption, while dense urban and commercial archetypes follow with delayed but steep increases. The presented work provides a robust and scalable framework applicable across Germany for simulating future energy and infrastructure developments across neighborhood structures aligned with national climate goals. • Climate-based tech ramp-ups downscaled to neighborhood archetypes to 2045. • Seven archetypes reflect Germany’s diverse energy-relevant building stock. • Yearly 2025–2045 HP, rooftop-PV and BEV penetration projections by archetype. • Method applicable across Germany.