Assessment of Flood Hazard and Infrastructure Vulnerability Under Sea-Level Rise in Eastern Saudi Arabia: Implications of UN SDGs for Sustainable Cities

Sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding are among the most pressing climate-related challenges facing coastal regions worldwide, and their impacts are further intensified by rapid urbanization. These processes pose serious socioeconomic and environmental risks, including increased flood exposure, threats to public health, and damage to critical infrastructure. In Saudi Arabia, more than 3100 km2 of coastal land lies at elevations of 1 m or lower; however, reliable assessments of future sea-level rise and its potential impacts remain limited, creating significant uncertainty for long-term planning. This study addresses this knowledge gap by identifying areas vulnerable to sea-level rise and coastal flooding through the development of inundation maps for the Dammam Metropolitan Area (DMA) as a case study, while also outlining potential adaptation measures. Using satellite imagery and geospatial datasets, changes in the DMA shoreline between 2014 and 2024 were analyzed, and sea-level rise scenarios were simulated based on projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that under a 0.6 m sea-level rise scenario, flooding would be limited to a small area of approximately 0.2 km2 in the Half-Moon residential district. In contrast, a 1.1 m sea-level rise scenario reveals a substantial increase in risk, with nearly 83 km2 of the DMA potentially exposed to coastal flooding. Based on these findings, targeted disaster management and adaptation strategies are recommended for areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise. The study highlights the need for policies regulating coastal reclamation and other climate-sensitive developments to minimize future flood risks. It supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) by enhancing urban flood risk assessment and improving understanding of climate-driven sea-level rise impacts.